Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Euro Cup 2012: Predictions


On Paper
11)      FIFA Rankings (last four months) (UEFA individual/team statistics)
i)                    Group A
a)      Russia: 12
b)      Greece: 13.8
c)       Czech Republic: 28.2
d)      Poland: 68.6
ii)                   Group B
a)      Germany: 2.4 (Tied highest assister: Ozil) (Most attempts on-target: team)
b)      Netherlands: 3 (Highest goal-scorer: Huntelaar) (Most goals thus far: team)
c)       Portugal: 6 (Most attempts on-target: Ronaldo)
d)      Denmark: 10.2
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain: 1 (Most attempts off-target: Villa; apparently, due to injury Villa won’t be able to make the tournament itself)
b)      Croatia: 8.6
c)       Italy: 10 (Fewest goals allowed thus far: team)
d)      Republic of Ireland: 19.6
iv)                 Group D
a)      England: 6
b)      France: 16
c)       Sweden: 17.2 (Tied highest assister: Kallstrom)
d)      Ukraine: 52.2
22)      Castrol Simulator (Attack-Defense) (Likelihood of success)
i)                    Group A
a)      Poland: 56.7% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Over-hyped)
b)      Czech Republic: 54% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Should qualify)
c)       Russia: 48.4% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (May actually qualify)
d)      Greece: 40.9% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
ii)                   Group B
a)      Netherlands: 69.2% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
b)      Germany: 58.4% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
c)       Portugal: 48.5% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
d)      Denmark: 23.9% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain: 80.1% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
b)      Italy: 46.9% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
c)       Croatia: 41.7% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
d)      Republic of Ireland: 31.3% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
iv)                 Group D
a)      England: 64.1% likely to progress out of the Group Stage
b)      Ukraine: 49.2% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Will be close)
c)       France: 45% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Will be close)
d)      Sweden: 41.7% likely to progress out of the Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
v)                  Quarter-Finals
a)      Germany – Poland: Germany 70% likely to progress
b)      Spain – Ukraine: Spain 72% likely to progress
c)       Netherlands – Czech Republic: Netherlands 71% likely to progress
d)      England – Italy: England 58% likely to progress
vi)                 Semi-Finals
a)      Germany – Spain: Spain 57% likely to progress
b)      Netherlands – England: Netherlands 55% likely to progress
vii)               Final
a)      Spain – Netherlands: Spain 53% likely to win
33)      Statistical significance: +5-10(%) (See 1) above)
i)                    Group A
a)      Russia, Greece
b)      Czech Republic, Poland
ii)                   Group B
a)      Germany, Netherlands, Portugal
b)      Denmark
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain
b)      Croatia, Italy
c)       Republic of Ireland
iv)                 Group D
a)      England
b)      France, Sweden
c)       Ukraine
44)      Through the matches (2012 performance up to 5/22/12)
i)                    Group A
a)      Poland – Greece: Poland wins.
Poland – Russia: Russia wins.
Poland – Czech Republic: Czech Republic wins.
Russia – Czech Republic: Russia wins.
Russia – Greece: Russia wins.
Czech Republic – Greece: Czech Republic wins.
b)      Russia: 9
Czech Republic: 6
Poland: 3
Greece: 0
ii)                   Group B
a)      Netherlands – Denmark: Netherlands wins.
Germany – Portugal: draw.
Germany – Denmark: Germany wins.
Germany – Netherlands: Germany wins.
Netherlands – Portugal: Netherlands wins.
Portugal – Denmark: Portugal wins.
b)      Germany: 7
Netherlands: 6
Portugal: 3
Denmark: 0
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain – Italy: Spain wins.
Spain – Ireland: Spain wins.
Spain – Croatia: Spain wins.
Italy – Croatia: draw.
Italy – Ireland: Italy wins.
Croatia – Ireland: Croatia wins.
b)      Spain: 9
Croatia: 4 (leads on goal difference)
Italy: 4
Ireland: 0
iv)                 Group D
a)      Sweden – Ukraine: Sweden wins.
Sweden – England: draw.
Sweden – France: France wins.
Ukraine – England: England wins.
Ukraine – France: France wins.
France – England: France wins.
b)      France: 9
Sweden: 4 (leads on goal difference)
England: 4
Ukraine: 0
v)                  Quarter-finals
a)      Russia – Netherlands: Netherlands
b)      Spain – Sweden: Spain
c)       Germany – Czech Republic: Germany
d)      France – Croatia: France
vi)                 Semi-Finals
a)      Netherlands – Spain: Spain
b)      Germany – France: Germany
vii)               Final
a)      Spain – Germany: Germany
55)      Statistical significance: +5-10(%) Castrol (See 2) above)
i)                    Group A
a)      Poland
b)      Russia, Czech Republic
c)       Greece
ii)                   Group B
a)      Netherlands, Germany
b)      Portugal
c)       Denmark
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain
b)      Italy, Croatia
c)       Republic of Ireland
iv)                 Group D
a)      England
b)      Ukraine, France, Sweden
66)      ESPN human analysis
i)                    Group A
a)      Russia and Greece qualify
b)      Czech Republic and Poland are out
ii)                   Group B
a)      Germany and Netherlands qualify
b)      Portugal and Denmark are out
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain and Italy qualify
b)      Croatia and the Republic of Ireland are out
iv)                 Group D
a)      France and Sweden qualify
b)      England and Ukraine are out
v)                  Quarter-Finals (with technological play-through)
a)      Russia – Netherlands: Netherlands win.
b)      Spain – Sweden: Spain wins.
c)       Germany – Greece: Germany wins.
d)      France – Italy: France wins.
vi)                 Semi-Finals (with technological play-through)
a)      Netherlands – Spain: Spain wins.
b)      Germany – France: Germany wins.
vii)               Final (with technological play-through)
a)      Germany – Spain: Germany wins it all.
77)      ESPN Soccer Power Index
i)                    Group A *** Poland and Czech Republic are very close; even Russia might see a challenge qualifying ***
a)      Russia and Poland qualify
b)      Czech Republic and Greece are out
ii)                   Group B
a)      Germany and Netherlands qualify
b)      Portugal and Denmark are out
iii)                 Group C *** Croatia and Italy are very close ***
a)      Spain and Croatia qualify
b)      Italy and Ireland are out
iv)                 Group D *** Sweden, Ukraine, and France are kind of close ***
a)      England and Sweden qualify
b)      Ukraine and France are out
88)      Significant factors:
i)                    Ukraine
a)      Goalkeepers Andriy Dykan and Olexandr Shovkovskiy both probably are out of the line-up for the crucial position.
ii)                   Sweden
a)      Johan Elmander should be set for the competition though John Guidetti seems to have missed his chance.
iii)                 Spain
a)      Both David Villa and Carles Puyol face the risk of missing the competition due to injury.
iv)                 Russia
a)      Alan Dzagoev, Sergei Ignashevich, and Vasili Berezutski all face steep fitness challenges if they plan on participating in the competition.
v)                  Republic of Ireland
a)      James McCarthy has cited personal reasons as to why he will not be able to participate in the competition.
vi)                 Portugal
a)      Hugo Viana has been left out of the 23-man competition squad, the only player to have thus far fallen out of contention.
vii)               Poland
a)      Sebastian Boenisch and Ireneusz Jelen will both be hoping to make it into the final roster.
viii)              Netherlands
a)      Erik Pieters has been ruled out of the competition squad following an unfortunate foot injury.
ix)                 Italy
a)      Giorgio Chiellini will be hoping to recover quickly following an injury in Juventus’ final league match of the season. Giuseppe Rossi will also be out after his cruciate ligament tear flared back up.
x)                  Greece
a)      In Greece’s provisional 25-man squad Nikos Liberopoulos snubbed Stefanos Athanasiadis for a spot. Michalis Sifakis, Kostas Chalkias and Alexandros Tzorvas will be the available goalies most likely while the arguably more successful Orestis Karnezis of Panathinaikos was left out. Vassilis Torossidis, Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Giannis Maniatis should also make appearances.
xi)                 Germany
a)      In the 27-man provisional squad list, Cacau appears to have maintained his position while the only addition appears to have been Schalke’s Julian Draxler.
xii)               France
a)      While Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa and Hatem Ben Afra have been included in the provisional French squad, there are several players who might not be: Loic Remy, Bacary Sagna, and Younes Kaboul.
xiii)              England
a)      While Chris Smalling has been declared unfit for service after a groin injury, Jack Wilshere has had similar issues of fitness. Having said that, uncapped midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and goalkeeper John Ruddy have been added onto the 23-man finals squad. Rio Ferdinand will also be missing out while Scott Parker is injured though included and Kyle Walker is out of consideration due to a toe injury.
xiv)             Denmark
a)      Anders Lindegaard, Manchester United’s goalkeeper, has been included in the side while Nicolai Boilesen will be unable to attend. Thomas Kahlenberg is probably the most surprising addition to the squad though two or three spaces remain to be handed out. Jannik Vestergaard and Nicklas Pedersen are potential challengers to the last spots on the team.
xv)               Czech Republic
a)      While Tomas Rosicky’s recovery is still in the works of taking place, a provisional player has taken his place: Vladimir Darida. Frantisek Rajtoral, Marek Suchy and Daniel Kolar are other options for the side. While keeper Petr Cech will probably be starting after his performance in the Champions League Final, Jaroslav Drobny and Tomas Grigar are just some of the names being thrown around. Jan Lastukka will probably be on the team should either of the other goalies drop out.
xvi)             Croatia
a)      While this will be Slaven Bilic’s last tournament at the head of the Croatian national team, he has named a competitive 27-man provisional squad.
99)      My take: What I’d like to see
i)                    Group A
a)      Russia and the Czech Republic advance
ii)                   Group B
a)      Germany and the Netherlands advance
iii)                 Group C
a)      Spain and Italy advance
iv)                 Group D
a)      France and Sweden advance
v)                  Quarter-Finals
a)      Russia – Netherlands: Russia wins.
b)      Spain – Sweden: Spain wins.
c)       Germany – Czech Republic: Germany wins.
d)      France – Italy: Italy wins.
vi)                 Semi-Finals
a)      Russia – Spain: Spain wins.
b)      Germany – Italy: Germany wins.
vii)               Final
a)      Spain – Germany: Germany wins.

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