On Paper
11) FIFA Rankings (last four months) (UEFA
individual/team statistics)
i)
Group A
a)
Russia: 12
b)
Greece: 13.8
c)
Czech Republic: 28.2
d)
Poland: 68.6
ii)
Group B
a)
Germany: 2.4 (Tied highest assister: Ozil)
(Most attempts on-target: team)
b)
Netherlands: 3 (Highest goal-scorer:
Huntelaar) (Most goals thus far: team)
c)
Portugal: 6 (Most attempts on-target: Ronaldo)
d)
Denmark: 10.2
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain: 1 (Most attempts off-target: Villa;
apparently, due to injury Villa won’t be able to make the tournament itself)
b)
Croatia: 8.6
c)
Italy: 10 (Fewest goals allowed thus far:
team)
d)
Republic of Ireland: 19.6
iv)
Group D
a)
England: 6
b)
France: 16
c)
Sweden: 17.2 (Tied highest assister:
Kallstrom)
d)
Ukraine: 52.2
22) Castrol Simulator (Attack-Defense) (Likelihood
of success)
i)
Group A
a)
Poland: 56.7% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Over-hyped)
b)
Czech Republic: 54% likely to progress out of
the Group Stage (Should qualify)
c)
Russia: 48.4% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (May actually qualify)
d)
Greece: 40.9% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
ii)
Group B
a)
Netherlands: 69.2% likely to progress out of
the Group Stage
b)
Germany: 58.4% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
c)
Portugal: 48.5% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
d)
Denmark: 23.9% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain: 80.1% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
b)
Italy: 46.9% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
c)
Croatia: 41.7% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
d)
Republic of Ireland: 31.3% likely to progress
out of the Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
iv)
Group D
a)
England: 64.1% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage
b)
Ukraine: 49.2% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Will be close)
c)
France: 45% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Will be close)
d)
Sweden: 41.7% likely to progress out of the
Group Stage (Least likely to succeed)
v)
Quarter-Finals
a)
Germany – Poland: Germany 70% likely to
progress
b)
Spain – Ukraine: Spain 72% likely to progress
c)
Netherlands – Czech Republic: Netherlands 71%
likely to progress
d)
England – Italy: England 58% likely to
progress
vi)
Semi-Finals
a)
Germany – Spain: Spain 57% likely to progress
b)
Netherlands – England: Netherlands 55% likely
to progress
vii)
Final
a)
Spain – Netherlands: Spain 53% likely to win
33) Statistical significance: +5-10(%) (See 1)
above)
i)
Group A
a)
Russia, Greece
b)
Czech Republic, Poland
ii)
Group B
a)
Germany, Netherlands, Portugal
b)
Denmark
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain
b)
Croatia, Italy
c)
Republic of Ireland
iv)
Group D
a)
England
b)
France, Sweden
c)
Ukraine
44) Through the matches (2012 performance up to
5/22/12)
i)
Group A
a)
Poland – Greece: Poland wins.
Poland
– Russia: Russia wins.
Poland
– Czech Republic: Czech Republic wins.
Russia
– Czech Republic: Russia wins.
Russia
– Greece: Russia wins.
Czech
Republic – Greece: Czech Republic wins.
b)
Russia: 9
Czech
Republic: 6
Poland:
3
Greece:
0
ii)
Group B
a)
Netherlands – Denmark: Netherlands wins.
Germany
– Portugal: draw.
Germany
– Denmark: Germany wins.
Germany
– Netherlands: Germany wins.
Netherlands
– Portugal: Netherlands wins.
Portugal
– Denmark: Portugal wins.
b)
Germany: 7
Netherlands:
6
Portugal:
3
Denmark:
0
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain – Italy: Spain wins.
Spain
– Ireland: Spain wins.
Spain
– Croatia: Spain wins.
Italy
– Croatia: draw.
Italy
– Ireland: Italy wins.
Croatia
– Ireland: Croatia wins.
b)
Spain: 9
Croatia:
4 (leads on goal difference)
Italy:
4
Ireland:
0
iv)
Group D
a)
Sweden – Ukraine: Sweden wins.
Sweden
– England: draw.
Sweden
– France: France wins.
Ukraine
– England: England wins.
Ukraine
– France: France wins.
France
– England: France wins.
b)
France: 9
Sweden:
4 (leads on goal difference)
England:
4
Ukraine:
0
v)
Quarter-finals
a)
Russia – Netherlands: Netherlands
b)
Spain – Sweden: Spain
c)
Germany – Czech Republic: Germany
d)
France – Croatia: France
vi)
Semi-Finals
a)
Netherlands – Spain: Spain
b)
Germany – France: Germany
vii)
Final
a)
Spain – Germany: Germany
55) Statistical significance: +5-10(%) Castrol (See
2) above)
i)
Group A
a)
Poland
b)
Russia, Czech Republic
c)
Greece
ii)
Group B
a)
Netherlands, Germany
b)
Portugal
c)
Denmark
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain
b)
Italy, Croatia
c)
Republic of Ireland
iv)
Group D
a)
England
b)
Ukraine, France, Sweden
66) ESPN human analysis
i)
Group A
a)
Russia and Greece qualify
b)
Czech Republic and Poland are out
ii)
Group B
a)
Germany and Netherlands qualify
b)
Portugal and Denmark are out
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain and Italy qualify
b)
Croatia and the Republic of Ireland are out
iv)
Group D
a)
France and Sweden qualify
b)
England and Ukraine are out
v)
Quarter-Finals (with technological
play-through)
a)
Russia – Netherlands: Netherlands win.
b)
Spain – Sweden: Spain wins.
c)
Germany – Greece: Germany wins.
d)
France – Italy: France wins.
vi)
Semi-Finals (with technological play-through)
a)
Netherlands – Spain: Spain wins.
b)
Germany – France: Germany wins.
vii)
Final (with technological play-through)
a)
Germany – Spain: Germany wins it all.
77) ESPN Soccer Power Index
i)
Group A *** Poland and Czech Republic are very
close; even Russia might see a challenge qualifying ***
a)
Russia and Poland qualify
b)
Czech Republic and Greece are out
ii)
Group B
a)
Germany and Netherlands qualify
b)
Portugal and Denmark are out
iii)
Group C *** Croatia and Italy are very close
***
a)
Spain and Croatia qualify
b)
Italy and Ireland are out
iv)
Group D *** Sweden, Ukraine, and France are
kind of close ***
a)
England and Sweden qualify
b)
Ukraine and France are out
88) Significant factors:
i)
Ukraine
a)
Goalkeepers Andriy Dykan and Olexandr
Shovkovskiy both probably are out of the line-up for the crucial position.
ii)
Sweden
a)
Johan Elmander should be set for the
competition though John Guidetti seems to have missed his chance.
iii)
Spain
a)
Both David Villa and Carles Puyol face the
risk of missing the competition due to injury.
iv)
Russia
a)
Alan Dzagoev, Sergei Ignashevich, and Vasili
Berezutski all face steep fitness challenges if they plan on participating in
the competition.
v)
Republic of Ireland
a)
James McCarthy has cited personal reasons as
to why he will not be able to participate in the competition.
vi)
Portugal
a)
Hugo Viana has been left out of the 23-man competition
squad, the only player to have thus far fallen out of contention.
vii)
Poland
a)
Sebastian Boenisch and Ireneusz Jelen will
both be hoping to make it into the final roster.
viii)
Netherlands
a)
Erik Pieters has been ruled out of the
competition squad following an unfortunate foot injury.
ix)
Italy
a)
Giorgio Chiellini will be hoping to recover
quickly following an injury in Juventus’ final league match of the season.
Giuseppe Rossi will also be out after his cruciate ligament tear flared back
up.
x)
Greece
a)
In Greece’s provisional 25-man squad Nikos
Liberopoulos snubbed Stefanos Athanasiadis for a spot. Michalis Sifakis, Kostas
Chalkias and Alexandros Tzorvas will be the available goalies most likely while
the arguably more successful Orestis Karnezis of Panathinaikos was left out. Vassilis
Torossidis, Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Giannis Maniatis should also make
appearances.
xi)
Germany
a)
In the 27-man provisional squad list, Cacau
appears to have maintained his position while the only addition appears to have
been Schalke’s Julian Draxler.
xii)
France
a)
While Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa and Hatem Ben Afra
have been included in the provisional French squad, there are several players
who might not be: Loic Remy, Bacary Sagna, and Younes Kaboul.
xiii)
England
a)
While Chris Smalling has been declared unfit
for service after a groin injury, Jack Wilshere has had similar issues of
fitness. Having said that, uncapped midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
and goalkeeper John Ruddy have been added onto the 23-man finals squad. Rio
Ferdinand will also be missing out while Scott Parker is injured though
included and Kyle Walker is out of consideration due to a toe injury.
xiv)
Denmark
a)
Anders Lindegaard, Manchester United’s goalkeeper,
has been included in the side while Nicolai Boilesen will be unable to attend. Thomas
Kahlenberg is probably the most surprising addition to the squad though two or
three spaces remain to be handed out. Jannik Vestergaard and Nicklas Pedersen
are potential challengers to the last spots on the team.
xv)
Czech Republic
a)
While Tomas Rosicky’s recovery is still in the
works of taking place, a provisional player has taken his place: Vladimir
Darida. Frantisek Rajtoral, Marek Suchy and Daniel Kolar are other
options for the side. While keeper Petr Cech will probably be starting after
his performance in the Champions League Final, Jaroslav Drobny and Tomas Grigar
are just some of the names being thrown around. Jan Lastukka will probably be
on the team should either of the other goalies drop out.
xvi)
Croatia
a)
While this will be Slaven Bilic’s last tournament
at the head of the Croatian national team, he has named a competitive 27-man
provisional squad.
99) My take: What I’d like to see
i)
Group A
a)
Russia and the Czech Republic advance
ii)
Group B
a)
Germany and the Netherlands advance
iii)
Group C
a)
Spain and Italy advance
iv)
Group D
a)
France and Sweden advance
v)
Quarter-Finals
a)
Russia – Netherlands: Russia wins.
b)
Spain – Sweden: Spain wins.
c)
Germany – Czech Republic: Germany wins.
d)
France – Italy: Italy wins.
vi)
Semi-Finals
a)
Russia – Spain: Spain wins.
b)
Germany – Italy: Germany wins.
vii)
Final
a)
Spain – Germany: Germany wins.
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