Well we have received the results of the Champions League and Europa League draws and they look about as enticing as you would imagine. Starting with the Champions League, Bayern will take on Barcelona as Dortmund meet Real Madrid. For the first game, injury and defensive concerns will be on the front of the docket as Barca will rely heavily on Messi - whether as a creative force or a goal-scorer. If he still isn't 100%, Bayern probably won't be as easy to break down as PSG were in the last round. As for the defensive side of things, Barcelona will have to do more than hold the ball to keep pressure off of their defense. Bayern will be the closest thing to a juggernaut that the Spaniards have met thus far. If Manuel Neuer and the defensive stalwarts of Dante, Philipp Lahm, and company do their job; Barcelona will have a tough time of it. As for goal-scorers, the number of teams that have the diversity of options that Bayern have is extremely limited. So what does all that mean? Well, rather than saying that it is anyone's game (which it really is) I think I will give my vote to Bayern. Barca will be enthralling and dominant, as always, but Bayern will be able to match them. It may go to penalties but if Bayern win at home (which they should) and deny Barca's goal-scorers, I doubt the Catalan side will be able to pull another victory out of the hat.
As for Dortmund's meeting with Real Madrid, while Madrid are obviously the kings of goal-scoring with Cristiano Ronaldo simply on fire; Dortmund remain the only team left at this level of the competition that are undefeated in 10 matches. As for the goal flows themselves, Real Madrid have tended to be more successful from out of the goal-box whereas Dortmund have had more luck cutting inside the area. At the same time, Madrid make the most opportunities though with a slightly better conversion rate. Clearly, both defenses will have to work over-time but I just cannot see Dortmund running away with a victory. If they manage it at home, at best I can see them drawing. For this reason, I'll pick Madrid to make it through.
As for the Europa League ties, Fenerbahce face Benfica as Basel greet Chelsea in their first leg. Despite playing half the number of games, Benfica have scored a relatively similar number of goals to their Turkish hosts in the first leg which promises to be a fantastic fixture. In Portugal, I cannot imagine that Benfica will lose so Fenerbahce will have to go to work from the beginning. With the Portuguese side converting approximately a third of their chances, I will tip Benfica to win in the first match-up.
Meanwhile, Chelsea are the clear favorites against Basel though the fate of fellow-London side Tottenham should serve as a word of caution against the Blues. Defensively, Basel will have to be perfect if they want any chance to claim a draw let alone victory. To turn to counter-factual arguments, even if Basel play the best defense possible, I can't imagine them doing any better than making it to penalties in the 2nd leg. Of course, at that point luck and contextual factors may well favor them but otherwise I see Chelsea going through so long as they don't take the foot off the gas. Enjoy the games!
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